What the archive
actually says.
No cherry-picked winners and no backfilled record. This page summarises every processed, non-excluded blind observation currently in the archive, then lets you inspect the evidence underneath it.
BLIND MATCHES—Processed observations in the current archive.
ARIA SH xG—Aggregate projected second-half xG.
ACTUAL SH xG—Aggregate second-half xG subsequently generated.
xG CALIBRATION GAP—Aria projected xG versus actual xG.
LEAGUE CALIBRATION
Where the read is closest.
Ranked by aggregate second-half xG calibration. Sample size is shown beside every league because a tiny sample should never be treated like a mature one.
#LeagueMatchesAria SH xGError
BLIND ARCHIVE
The evidence underneath.
Search by team or filter by league. These are the underlying match observations used in the summary above.
DateLeagueHomeAwayAria xGActual xGDifference
This page is primarily a calibration record: did Aria measure the second-half chance environment accurately? Market prices, value and profitability are a separate research question and should not be allowed to rewrite the underlying measurement after the event.